Turkey’s Central Bank announced its end of year survey, stating the end of year inflation was expected to be 8.53 percent annually and the monthly increase in December was expected to be slightly flat.
The Central Bank's expectations survey intends to monitor the expectations of experts and decision makers from financial and real sectors related to various economic variables.
Consumer prices have increased by 0.67 percent in November, slightly higher than intermediary economists’ expectations, which was around 0.5 percent. According to Turkstat data, inflation rose by 8.58 percent in the first 11 months of the year, while it rose by 8.10 percent annually, as at the end of November.
According to the survey, the inflation this month is expected to be as low as 0.07 percent, thus the 2015 annual inflation was expected to reach 8.53 percent. If the inflation in December is higher than expected, it is seen to increase to 9.0 percent or higher.
According to the participants of the survey, the inflation targeted by the Central Bank as 5.0 percent will be at 7.56 percent in 12 months, and 6.86 percent in 24 months.
Targets have not been met so far
Since 2006, when the Central Bank has kicked off open inflation targeting, it is remarkable that no inflation targets have been reached so far. For instance, the variance of targetings was 94 percent in 2006, and 110 percent in 2007.
In 2008, against the targeting that was indicated as 4 percent earlier, was beyond the expectations, and has reached 10.1 percent with 152 percent variance in the end of year.